Peapack Gladstone Financial (Peapack Gladstone Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Peapack Gladstone Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Peapack Gladstone Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Peapack Gladstone Financial (Peapack Gladstone Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Peapack Gladstone Financial Corp (NAS:PGC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 Hills Drive, Suite 300, Bedminster, NJ, USA, 07921

Website

https://www.pgbank.com

Peapack Gladstone Financial Corp provides banking services. It operates through two segments namely Banking, which involves the delivery of loans and deposits, and Peapack Private Division which includes asset management services. The banking segment includes commercial real estate, multifamily, residential and consumer lending, deposit generation, and internet banking services. Peapack Private includes asset management services for individuals and institutions; personal trust services, administrator, custodian and guardian, and other financial planning and advisory services.

Executives

Stuart M. Vorcheimer	officer: EVP, Comm & Ind Lndg	500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Frank A. Cavallaro	officer: SEVP & Chief Financial Officer	132 YALE AVENUE, SOMERDALE NJ 08083
Patrick Campion	director	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE ASSET MGMT, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
John P Babcock	officer: SEVP & Pres of Priv Wealth Mgt	500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Anthony W. Spinelli	director	500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, P.O. BOX 700, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Robert A. Plante	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, P.O. BOX 700, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Carmen M Bowser	director	1170 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 600, ATLANTA GA 30309
F Duffield Meyercord	director
Douglas L Kennedy	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O PEAPACK GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORP, 500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921-1538
Francesco S Rossi	officer: SVP/Chief Accounting Officer	500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Vincent A Spero	officer: EVP, Head of Comml Real Estate	190 MAIN STREET, PO BOX 178, GLADSTONE NJ 07934
Peter D. Horst	director	500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Steven A Kass	director	226 LANDIS AVENUE, VINELAND NJ 08360
Jeffrey J Carfora	officer: SEVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O PENNFED FINANCIAL SERVICES INC, 622 EAGLE ROCK AVENUE, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Gregory Martin Smith	officer: EVP, Head of Comml Banking	500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921