What is BiomX Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
BiomX Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
BiomX (PHGE) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
22 Einstein Street, Floor 5, Ness Ziona, ISR, 7414003
BiomX Inc is a clinical-stage microbiome company based in Israel. The company is engaged in developing both natural and engineered phage cocktails designed to target and destroy harmful bacteria that affect the appearance of the skin, as well as harmful bacteria in chronic diseases, such as inflammatory bowel disease, colorectal cancer, and primary sclerosing cholangitis.
Executives
| Assaf Oron |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
C/O BIOMX LTD., 7 PINHAS SAPIR ST., FLOOR 2, NESS ZIONA L3 7414002 |
| Eddie Williams |
director |
260 LITTLEFIELD AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Michael E. Dambach |
director |
22 EINSTEIN STREET, FLOOR 4, NESS ZIONA L3 7414003 |
| Jason M. Marks |
director |
C/O AMARIN PHARMA, INC., 440 US HIGHWAY 22, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807 |
| Carl L Gordon |
10 percent owner |
601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Orbimed Israel Biofund Gp Limited Partnership |
director, 10 percent owner |
601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 1022-4629 |
| Chidozie Ugwumba |
10 percent owner |
158 FILMORE STREET, DENVER CO 80206 |
| Thomas Layton Walton |
10 percent owner |
P.O. BOX 1860, BENTONVILLE AR 72712 |
| Paul J Sekhri |
director |
C/O VEEVA SYSTEMS INC., 4637 CHABOT DRIVE, SUITE 210, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| Lynne Marie Sullivan |
director |
C/O SOLID BIOSCIENCES, LLC, 141 PORTLAND STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Marina Wolfson |
officer: Principal Financial Officer |
C/O BIOMX LTD., 7 PINHAS SAPIR ST., FLOOR 2, NESS ZIONA L3 7414002 |
| Jonathan Eitan Solomon |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O BIOMX LTD., 7 PINHAS SAPIR ST., FLOOR 2, NESS ZIONA L3 7414002 |
| Alan Charles Moses |
director |
C/O 7 PINHAS SAPIR ST., FLOOR 2, NESS ZIONA L3 7414002 |
| Russell Greig |
director |
C/O MERUS N.V., YALELAAN 62, UTRECHT P7 3584 CM |
| Gbolahan Amusa |
director |
17 STATE STREET 21 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
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