Phinia (Phinia) Predictability Rank

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What is Phinia Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Phinia Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Phinia (Phinia) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Phinia Inc (NYSE:PHIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3A6:Germany

Address

3000 University Drive, Auburn Hills, MI, USA, 48326

Website

Phinia Inc is a leader in the development, design and manufacture of integrated components and systems that optimize performance, increase efficiency and reduce emissions in combustion and hybrid propulsion for commercial vehicles and industrial applications and light vehicles. It is a global supplier to most major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and offers a wide range of original equipment service (OES) solutions and remanufactured products as well as an expanded range of products for the independent (non-OEM) aftermarket. Phinia has an extensive original equipment portfolio of advanced fuel injection systems, fuel delivery modules, canisters, starters, alternators, sensors, electronic control modules and associated software.

Executives

Neil Fryer	officer: VP and GM Global Aftermarket*	3000 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Samuel R. Chapin	director	940 WINTER STREET, C/O PERKINELMER, WALTHAM MA 02451
Brady D Ericson	officer: President and CEO*	3850 HAMLIN ROAD, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Latondra Newton	director	3000 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Daun Norman	director	C/O GARRETT MOTION INC., LA PIECE 16, ROLLE V8 1180
Beasi Alisa Di	officer: VP and CHRO*	3000 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Christopher Gustanski	officer: VP, Operational Excellence*	3000 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Matthew Logar	officer: VP and CIO*	3000 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Michael Coetzee	officer: VP and GM Fuel Syst. Americas*	3000 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Samantha Pombier	officer: VP Controller and CAO*	3000 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
John Lipinski	officer: VP and GM Fuel Syst. Europe*	3000 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Sebastian Dori	officer: VP and CPO*	3000 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Todd L Anderson	officer: VP and Chief Tech. Officer*	5605 CARNEGIE BLVD. SUITE 500, CHARLOTTE NC 28209
Roger Wood	director	3850 HAMLIN RD., AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Robin Kendrick	director	BORGWARNER INC., 3850 HAMLIN ROAD, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326