Park Aerospace (Park Aerospace) Predictability Rank

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What is Park Aerospace Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Park Aerospace Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Park Aerospace (Park Aerospace) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Park Aerospace Corp (NYSE:PKE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PKE:Germany

Address

1400 Old Country Road, Suite 409N, Westbury, New York, NY, USA, 11590

Website

https://www.parkaerospace.com

Park Aerospace Corp designs develop and manufactures engineered, Advanced composite materials and composite structures and assemblies and low-volume tooling for the aerospace markets and prototype tooling for such structures and assemblies. It only operating business segments is Aerospace. Geographically, the company derives a majority of revenue from North America and also has a presence in a company operates its business in Asia and Europe. It offers Advanced Composite Prepregs for Aircraft Structures and Interiors, Sigma Strut and Alpha Strut.

Executives

Shane Connor	director	10510 SPRINGBORO PIKE, MIAMISBURG OH 45342
Nickel Cory	officer: Sr VP and General Manager	816 N. BLAINE ST., NEWTON KS 67114
Dale Blanchfield	director	128 HAWTHORNE ROAD, HOPKINS MN 55343
D. Bradley Thress	director	250 WEST SPRING STREET, UNIT 615, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Brian E Shore	director, officer: President and CEO
Emily J Groehl	officer: Sr. VP, Sales and Marketing
Mark A Esquivel	officer: Vice President - Aerospace	48 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Yvonne Julian	director	225 HIDDEN HILLS DRIVE, GREENVILLE SC 29605
Steven T Warshaw	director
Stephen E Gilhuley	officer: Senior Vice President, Secreta
P. Matthew Farabaugh	officer: Vice President and Controller	PARK ELECTROCHEMICAL CORP., 48 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 300, MELVILLE X1 11747
Benjamin Wykoff Shore	officer: Senior Vice President	31 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, CENTERPORT NY 11721
Robert J Yaniro	officer: VP and Corporate Controller	48 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, MELVILLE NY 11747
Carl William Smith	director	10044 E. NACOMA CT., SUN LAKE AZ 85248
Christopher T. Mastrogiacomo	officer: V P of Strategic Marketing	48 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 300, MELVILLE NY 11747