Palomar Holdings (Palomar Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Palomar Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Palomar Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Palomar Holdings (Palomar Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Palomar Holdings Inc (NAS:PLMR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PH8:Germany

Address

7979 Ivanhoe Avenue, Suite 500, La Jolla, CA, USA, 92037

Website

https://plmr.com

Palomar Holdings Inc is a United States-based company focused on the provision of specialty property insurance earthquake, wind, and flood insurance products. The company's core focus is on the residential and commercial earthquake markets in earthquake-exposed states such as California, Oregon, Washington, and states with exposure to the New Madrid Seismic Zone. It offers specialty property insurance products in the target markets to both individuals and businesses through multiple channels, including retail agents, program administrators, wholesale brokers, and in partnership with other insurance companies. Its products include Residential Earthquake, Commercial Earthquake, Specialty Homeowners, Inland Marine, Commercial All Risk, Hawaii Hurricane, Residential Flood and others.

Executives

T Christopher Uchida	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Jon Christianson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Angela L. Grant	officer: Chief Legal Officer	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Michelle Antoinette Johnson	officer: Senior VP, People & Talent	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Jonathan Knutzen	officer: Chief Risk Officer	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92121
Mac Armstrong	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
William Bold	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Heath A Fisher	officer: President	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Martha Notaras	director	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Robert E Dowdell	director
Daina Middleton	director	C/O MARIN SOFTWARE INCORPORATED, 123 MISSION STREET, 25TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Richard H Taketa	director	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Britt Morries	officer: Chief Operating Officer	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Andrew T Robinson	officer: Chief Underwriting Officer	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Daryl Bradley	director	7979 IVANHOE AVENUE, SUITE 500, LA JOLLA CA 92037