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PMC-Sierra (PMC-Sierra) Predictability Rank


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What is PMC-Sierra Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


PMC-Sierra Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PMC-Sierra Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PMC-Sierra's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


PMC-Sierra (PMC-Sierra) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
PMC-Sierra Inc was incorporated in the state of California in 1983 and reincorporated in the state of Delaware in 1997. The Company is a semiconductor and and software solution provider transforming networks that connect, move and store digital content. It designs, develops, markets and supports semiconductor solutions by integrating its mixed-signal, software and systems expertise through a network of offices in North America, Europe and Asia. The Company has approximately 700 different semiconductor devices that are sold to equipment and design manufacturers, who in turn supply their equipment principally to service providers, carriers and enterprises globally. The Company provides semiconductor solutions for its customers by leveraging its intellectual property, design expertise and systems knowledge across a range of applications and industry protocols. The Company derives its net revenues from the following operating segments: Communication Products, Enterprise Storage Products, Microprocessor Products, and Broadband Wireless Products. The Company operates in one reportable segment-semiconductor solutions for communications network infrastructure. Its semiconductor devices enable networking equipment primarily in the following three end market segments: Storage, Optical and Mobile networks. The Storage market segment is made up of enterprise storage equipment manufacturers and covers two broad areas: server storage, and stand-alone external storage systems. The Optical market segment refers to infrastructure suppliers of transport and access networks that use optical transport protocol and/or physical optical medium. The Mobile market segment is mainly infrastructure equipment suppliers, including base station and backhaul equipment, supporting the wireless transmission of content from and to mobile hand devices. The Company faces competition at the customer design stage when its customers are determining which semiconductor components to use in its equipment designs. The Company competes against peer-group semiconductor companies that engage in the communications and storage semiconductor business. These companies include the following: Altera Corp., Applied Micro Circuits Corp.; Broadcom Corp.; Cortina Systems, Inc.; Emulex Corp.; Exar Corp.; Infineon Technologies AG; Intel Corp.; Texas Instrument Inc; LSI Corp.; Maxim Integrated Products, Inc.; Marvell Technology Group Ltd.; Mindspeed Technologies, Inc.; QLogic Corp.; Vitesse Semiconductor; and Xilinx, Inc. The Company has a total of 597 U.S. and 80 foreign patents for circuit designs and other innovations used in the design and architecture of its products. In addition, it has 95 patent applications pending in the U.S. Patent and Trademark office. The Company's business is subject to or may be impacted by various environmental protection and social responsibility legal and customer requirements.
Executives
Alinka Flaminia officer: VP, General Counsel Corp. Sec. 3975 FREEDOM CIRCLE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
David M Fein officer: VP of Worldwide Sales 1380 BORDEAUX DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
William Kurtz director NOVELLUS SYSTEMS, INC., 4000 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Richard Belluzzo director C/O QUANTUM CORP, 501 SYCAORE DR, MILPITAS CA 95035
Gregory S Lang director, officer: President and CEO C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Michael Farese director 6290 SEQUENCE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Michael Klayko director
Richard N Nottenburg director 1303 EAST ALGONQUIN ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60196
Jonathan Judge director 895 EMERSON STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Ralph V Whitworth 10 percent owner RELATIONAL INVESTORS LLC, 12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Relational Investors Llc 10 percent owner 12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Kirt P Karros director, 10 percent owner 12400 HIGH BLUFF DR. SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
James Diller other: Former Director 1001 MURPHY RANCH ROAD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Michael W Zellner other: Former VP Finance C/O CYAN, INC., 1383 N. MCDOWELL BLVD., SUITE 300, PETALUMA CA 94954
Frank Marshall other: Former Director 3975 FREEDOM CIRCLE, C/O PMC SIERRA INC, SANTA CLARA CA 95054

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