Pioneer Power Solutions (Pioneer Power Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Pioneer Power Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pioneer Power Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pioneer Power Solutions (Pioneer Power Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Pioneer Power Solutions Inc (NAS:PPSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 Kelby Street, 12th Floor, One Parker Plaza, Fort Lee, NJ, USA, 07024

Website

https://www.pioneerpowersolutions.com

Pioneer Power Solutions Inc manufactures, sells, and services a broad range of specialty electrical transmission, distribution, and on-site power generation equipment for applications in the utility, industrial, commercial and backup power markets. Its principal products and services include custom-engineered electrical transformers, switchgear and engine-generator sets and controls, complemented by a national field-service network to maintain and repair power generation assets. Pioneer Power works in two reportable segments: Transmission and Distribution Solutions (T&D Solutions) and Critical Power Solutions (Critical Power). Pioneer generates most of its revenue from the United States of America.

Executives

Nathan Mazurek	10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO, Chairman	C/O PIONEER POWER SOLUTIONS, INC., 400 KELBY STREET 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Kytchener Stevenson Whyte	director	400 KELBY STREET, 12TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Wojciech Michalec	officer: Interim CFO	400 KELBY STREET, 12TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
A. Lawrence Carroll Trust	10 percent owner	415 L'AMBIANCE DRIVE, APT. 804, LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
David Tesler	director	400 KELBY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Jonathan Tulkoff	director	400 KELBY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Thomas Klink	director, officer: See Remarks	400 KELBY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Andrew Minkow	director, officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer	400 KELBY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Ian Ross	director	400 KELBY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Yossi Cohn	director	400 KELBY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
David J. Landes	director, 10 percent owner	400 KELBY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Provident Pioneer Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 KELBY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Provident Canada Corp.	10 percent owner	400 KELBY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, FORT LEE NJ 07024