Parkervision (Parkervision) Predictability Rank

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What is Parkervision Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Parkervision Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Parkervision (Parkervision) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Parkervision Inc (OTCPK:PRKR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4446-1A Hendricks Avenue, Suite 354, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32207

Website

https://www.parkervision.com

Parkervision Inc is in the business of innovating fundamental wireless technologies. The company designs, develop, and markets its proprietary radio frequency technologies and products for use in semiconductor circuits for mobile and other wireless applications. It also markets a consumer distributed WiFi product line under the brand name Milo. The company derives revenue from licensing of its intellectual property, settlements from patent infringement disputes, sales of products, and engineering services.

Executives

Titterton Lewis H Jr	director	6 AUTUMN LANE, SARATOGA SPRINGS NY 12866
Sanford M Litvack	director	C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY, 3000 HANOVER, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Cynthia Poehlman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8493 BAYMEADOWS WAY, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Paul A Rosenbaum	director	2945 NW LURAY TERRACE, PORTLAND OR 97210
Frank N Newman	director	980 FIFTH AVENUE, 3B, NEW YORK NY 10075
Jeffrey Parker	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	8493 BAYMEADOWS WAY, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Gregory S Rawlins	officer: CTO (Heathrow)	3024 KINGFISHER PT, CHULUOTA FL 32766
Marxe Austin W & Greenhouse David M	10 percent owner	C/O SPECIAL SITUATIONS FUNDS, 527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022
David Freelove	10 percent owner	ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, 60 EAST 42ND ST, SUITE 450, NEW YORK NY 10165
Del Mar Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, 60 EAST 42ND ST, SUITE 5230, NEW YORK NY 10165
Del Mar Master Fund, Ltd.	10 percent owner	ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, 60 EAST 42ND ST, SUITE 450, NEW YORK NY 10165
Del Mar Management, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, 60 EAST 42ND ST, SUITE 450, NEW YORK NY 10165
John Stuckey	officer: Executive Vice President	7915 BAYMEADOWS WAY, SUITE 400, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Robert Greene Sterne	director	2907 TAI DR, OAKTON VA 22124
Richard A Kashnow	director	313 CONSTITUTION DR, STE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025