Parsons (Parsons) Predictability Rank

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What is Parsons Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Parsons Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Parsons (Parsons) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Parsons Corp (NYSE:PSN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

59P:Germany 59P:Germany

Address

5875 Trinity Parkway, Suite 300, Centreville, VA, USA, 21120

Website

https://www.parsons.com

Parsons Corp is a provider of technology-driven solutions in the defense, intelligence, and critical infrastructure markets. The business activities of the group are carried out through Federal Solutions and Critical Infrastructure segments. The Federal Solutions segment is a high-end service and technology provider to the U.S. government, delivering timely, cost-effective solutions for mission-critical projects, whereas the Critical Infrastructure segment provides integrated design and engineering services for complex physical and digital infrastructure around the globe.

Executives

George L. Ball	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10943 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY W., HOUSTON TX 77064
Matthew Ofilos	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PARSONS CORPORATION, 5875 TRINITY PARKWAY, #300, CENTREVILLE VA 20210
Ellen M. Lord	director	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Susan M. Balaguer	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O PARSONS, 5875 TRINITY PARKWAY #300, CENTREVILLE VA 20120
Carey A. Smith	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6210 ARDREY KELL ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Michael Richard Kolloway	officer: See Remarks	5875 TRINITY PKWY #300, CENTREVILLE VA 20120
Harry T. Mcmahon	director	9200 OAKDALE AVENUE, SUITE 900, LOS ANGELES CA 91311
David C Wajsgras	director	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Darren W Mcdew	director	100 ABBOTT PARK ROAD, ABBOTT PARK IL 60064
Letitia A Long	director	C/O CORPORATE OFFICE PROPERTIES TRUST, 6711 COLUMBIA GATEWAY DRIVE, #300, COLUMBIA MD 21046
Debra Fiori	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O PARSONS CORPORATION, 5875 TRINITY PARKWAY, #300, CENTREVILLE VA 20120
Charles L. Harrington	director, officer: See Remarks	5875 TRINITY PKWY #300, CENTREVILLE VA 20120
James F Mcgovern	director
M Christian Mitchell	director	355 S. GRAND AVE, SUITE 1750, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Mark Holdsworth	director	140 S. LAKE AVE., STE. 304, PASADENA CA 91101