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Power REIT (Power REIT) Predictability Rank


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What is Power REIT Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Power REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Power REIT Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Power REIT (Power REIT) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Power REIT (AMEX:PW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CORRQ AMT EQIX DLR CCI IRM WY SBAC LAMR GLPI BSP:ZIFI11 RYN PCH EPR HASI OUT UNIT ASX:WPR ASX:ARF SGX:DCRU
Traded in Other Exchanges
PW.PRA.PFD:USA
Address
301 Winding Road, Old Bethpage, NY, USA, 11804
Website
https://www.pwreit.com
Power REIT is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns real estate related to properties for Controlled Environment Agriculture, Renewable Energy and Transportation. The company is actively seeking to expand its real estate portfolio related to Controlled Environment Agriculture for the cultivation of food and cannabis. The company is focused on CEA in the form of a greenhouse which uses dramatically less energy than indoor growing, 95% less water usage than outdoor growing and does not have any agricultural runoff of fertilizers or pesticides. To date, its greenhouse properties are operated for the cultivation of cannabis by state-licensed operators.
Executives
Dionisio D'aguilar director 301 WINDING ROAD, OLD BETHPAGE NY 11804
Virgil E Wenger director 450 MIDDLESEX RD, DARIEN CT 06820-2519
Haynes Patrick R Iii director 1111 W STREET, NW, APARTMENT #1, WASHINGTON DC DC 20009
Paula Poskon director 2529 VIRGINIA BEACH BLVD., VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23452
Susan Hollander officer: Chief Accounting Officer 21 PASTURE LANE, OLD BETHPAGE NY 11804
David H Lesser director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO 301 WINDING ROAD, OLD BETHPAGE NY 11804
Justinian Hobor director 1358 W. GREENLEAF AVE., APT. 3S, CHICAGO IL 60626
William Susman director 3 EAST 84TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10028
Arun Mittal officer: Corporate Secretary, Treasurer 2631 MEADOW HALL DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20171