PaxMedica (PaxMedica) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is PaxMedica Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PaxMedica Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PaxMedica Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PaxMedica's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

PaxMedica (PaxMedica) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » PaxMedica Inc (OTCPK:PXMD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

303 South Broadway, Suite 125, Tarrytown, NJ, USA, 10591

Website

https://www.paxmedica.com

PaxMedica Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focusing on the development of anti-purinergic drug therapies (APT) for the treatment of disorders with intractable neurologic symptoms, ranging from neurodevelopmental disorders, including autism spectrum disorder (ASD), to Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS), a debilitating physical and cognitive disorder believed to be viral in origin and now with rising incidence globally due to the long term effects of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). The company's product candidate under development is PAX-101, an intravenous formulation of suramin, which it is developing for multiple indications, including East African HAT, ASD, ME/CFS, and LCS.

Executives

Zachary Rome	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O TIMBER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Michael Derby	director, officer: Executive Chairman	303 SOUTH BROADWAY, SUITE 125, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Howard J. Weisman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PAXMEDICA, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Karen Larochelle	director	900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
John F Coelho	director	22 BENEDICT CRESCENT, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920
Charles J Casamento	director	99 BELBROOK WAY, ATHERTON CA 94027
David W. Hough	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PAXMEDICA, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Tardimed Sciences Llc	10 percent owner	303 SOUTH BROADWAY, SUITE 125, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Stephen Sheldon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2 REVOLUTIONARY WAY, #312, HOPKINTON MA 01748