What is Research Frontiers Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Research Frontiers Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Research Frontiers (Research Frontiers) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
240 Crossways Park Drive, Woodbury, NY, USA, 11797-2033
Research Frontiers Inc is engaged in the development and marketing of technology and devices to control the flow of light. The company develops and licenses its patented suspended particle device light-control technology to other companies that manufacture and market the SPD-Smart chemical emulsion, the light-control film made from the chemical emulsion, the light-control panels made by laminating the film, electronics to power end-products incorporating the film, or lamination services for, and the end-products. Its revenue source comes from the licensing of technology.
Executives
| Darryl Daigle |
director |
3213 WYTCHWOOD DRIVE, MORGAN CITY LA 70380 |
| Eyal Peso |
director |
C/O GAUZY LTD., 14 HATHIYA STREET, TEL AVIV-YAFO L3 6816914 |
| Kevin Douglas |
10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group |
300A DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 200, GREENBRAE CA 94904 |
| William Graham Settle |
director |
6003 COBRIDGE SQUARE, RALEIGH NC 27609 |
| Michael R Lapointe |
officer: Vice President-Marketing |
|
| Alexander Kaganowicz |
director |
1217 CARLLS STRAIGHT PATH, DIX HILLS NY 11746 |
| Joseph M Harary |
director, officer: Persident and CEO |
|
| Grimes George Gregory |
director |
24 FIFTH AVENUE, APT. 1530, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Douglas Family Trust |
10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group |
300A DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 200, GREENBRAE CA 94904 |
| James & Jean Douglas Irrevocable Descendants Trust |
10 percent owner, other: 13(d)(3) group |
300A DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 200, GREENBRAE CA 94904 |
| Voorhees Seth Van |
officer: VicePresident-Business Dev/CFO |
12 HARVEY DRIVE, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078 |
| Robert L Saxe |
director, officer: Chairman/CTO |
|
| Steven Michael Slovak |
officer: Vice President-Technology |
240 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797 |
| Jack Derby |
director |
399 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02117 |
| Victor F Keen |
director |
C/O RESEARCH FRONTIERS INC., 240 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797 |
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