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Rentrak (Rentrak) Predictability Rank


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What is Rentrak Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Rentrak Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Rentrak Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Rentrak's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Rentrak (Rentrak) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Rentrak Corp is an Oregon corporation and was incorporated in 1977. It is a media measurement and information company serving the entertainment, television, video and advertising industries. The Company's Software as a Service technology merges census-based television viewership information from over 100 million TVs and devices with consumer behavior and purchase information across multiple platforms, devices and distribution channels. It also measures box office results from more than 125,000 movie screens in 47 countries. The Company processes and aggregates billions of data transactions from multiple screens wherever entertainment content is viewed, whether at the box office, on a television screen, over the internet, on a smart phone or other portable device. It measures live TV, recorded TV, Video-On-Demand and whether the content is free, purchased, rented, recorded, downloaded or streamed from multiple channels. These content databases provide stable and granular viewership information across every screen and are anonymously matched with third-party consumer segmentation and purchase databases using privacy compliant methodologies. By linking multiscreen viewership information with information about the products viewers consume and prefer, the Company provides its clients, such as content producers, distributors, advertisers and advertising agencies, with the knowledge necessary to effectively manage their businesses, program and market their networks and precisely target and sell their advertising inventory. Additionally, certain clients of the Company use the databases to populate programmatic buying systems. These systems automate the buying process and introduce efficiencies for both advertising agencies and their clients. The Company's media measurement services are distributed through patent pending software systems and business processes into two areas within the entertainment industry: - Movies Everywhere and TV Everywhere. The Company's Entertainment Essentials services are: TV Everywhere including TV Essentials and StationView Essentials; OnDemand Everywhere includes OnDemand Essentials, Over the Top measurement products and related products; Movies Everywhere includes domestic and international Box Office Essentials, PostTrak and PreAct; and Other Services include Studio Direct Revenue Sharing and other products relating to content in the home video rental industry. The Company's primary competitors are Nielsen, Kantar and TiVo. It owns two patents directed to techniques for extracting revenue information from point-of-sale terminals, as well as nine patents for linear data collection, projections and analysis. Among the linear TV patents are two for our sophisticated TV-off methodology, which accurately accounts for cases when the TV is turned off but the set-top box.
Executives
David I. Chemerow officer: Chief Operating Officer & CFO PLAYBOY ENT., INC. - H. SHAPIRO, 680 N LAKE SHORE DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60611
Brent David Rosenthal director C/O WR HUFF ASSET MANAGEMENT, 67 PARK PLACE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Ralph R Shaw director 3438 SW BRENTWOOD DRIVE, PORTLAND OR 97201
William Paul Livek director, officer: Chief Executive Officer P O BOX 18888, PORTLAND OR 97218
William E Engel director C/O RENTRAK CORPORATION, 7700 NE AMBASSADOR PLACE, PORTLAND OR 97220-1393
Plc Wpp 10 percent owner SEA CONTAINERS, 18 UPPER GROUND, LONDON X0 SE1 9GL
Patricia A. Gottesman director C/O WORLD WRESTLING ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 1241 EAST MAIN STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
Wpp Luxembourg Gamma Three S.a.r.l. 10 percent owner 124 BOULEVARD DE LA PETRUSSE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2330
Anne Macdonald director 200 CARILLON PARKWAY, ST PETERSBURG FL 33716
Michelle Spencer officer: Sr VP Finance & Dep. CFO RENTRAK CORPORATION, 7700 NE AMBASSADOR PLACE, PORTLAND OR 97220
Christopher T Wilson officer: President, National Linear TV 7700 NE AMBASSADOR PLACE, PORTLAND OR 97220
Richard Hochhauser director
Paul A Rosenbaum director, officer: Chairman of the Board 2945 NW LURAY TERRACE, PORTLAND OR 97210
Thomas D Allen director 2101 E FOURTH ST, STE 202, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Cecil D Andrus director 350 N NINTH STREET, SUITE 202, BOISE ID 83702

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