Rithm Capital (Rithm Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is Rithm Capital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rithm Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rithm Capital (Rithm Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Rithm Capital Corp (NYSE:RITM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

AGNC BXMT STWD ABR RC NLY CMTG ARI LADR PMT CIM FBRT TWO MFA EFC RWT KREF NYMT ARR DX

Traded in Other Exchanges

RITMpD.PFD:USA RITMpC.PFD:USA RITMpB.PFD:USA RITMpA.PFD:USA 14N1:Germany

Address

799 Broadway, New York, NY, USA, 10003

Website

https://www.rithmcap.com

Rithm Capital Corp operates as a real estate investment trust that provides capital and services to the real estate and financial services industries. The company's mission is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in all interest rate environments through a complementary portfolio of investments and operating businesses. Rithm Capital's investment portfolio is composed of mortgage servicing related assets (full and excess MSRs and servicer advances), residential securities (and associated call rights) and loans (including single family rental), and consumer loans.

Executives

Peggy Hwan Hebard	director	5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Philip M Sivin	officer: Chief Legal Officer	RESURGENCE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 10 NEW KING STREET, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Le Melle Patrice M	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Alan L. Tyson	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Andrew Sloves	director	799 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10003
Pamela F Lenehan	director	C/O AVID TECHNOLOGY, INC., ONE PARK WEST, TEWKSBURY MA 01876
Robert Mcginnis	director	2002 SUMMIT BLVD., 6TH FLOOR, ATLANTA GA 30319
Nicola Jr Santoro	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O FXCM INC, 55 WATER STREET, NEW YORK NY 10041
David Saltzman	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Michael Nierenberg	director, officer: CEO and President	799 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10003
David Schneider	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Wesley R Edens	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Home Loan Servicing Solutions, Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O INTERTRUST CORP SERVICES CAYMAN LTD, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9005
Kevin J Finnerty	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Susan Givens	officer: CFO and Treasurer	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105