Reneo Pharmaceuticals (Reneo Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Reneo Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Reneo Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Reneo Pharmaceuticals (Reneo Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Reneo Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:RPHM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

18575 Jamboree Road, Suite 275-S, Irvine, CA, USA, 92612

Website

https://www.reneopharma.com

Reneo Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical stage pharmaceutical company. It is focused on the development of therapies for patients with rare genetic mitochondrial diseases, which are often associated with the inability of mitochondria to produce adenosine triphosphate (ATP). The company is developing REN001 to modulate genes critical to metabolism and generation of ATP, which is the primary source of energy for cellular processes.

Executives

Ashley Hall	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O ESPERION THERAPEUTICS INC., 3891 RANCHERO DRIVE SUITE 150, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Niall O'donnell	director	C/O RIVERVEST VENTURE PARTNERS, 101 SOUTH HANLEY RD., STE 1850, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Michael Cruse	officer: Senior VP, Corporate Operation	C/O RENEO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 12230 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 230, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Roshawn A. Blunt	director	11682 EL CAMINO REAL STE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Jennifer Lam	officer: VP of Finance & Administration	C/O RENEO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 18575 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 275-S, IRVINE CA 92612
Paul W. Hoelscher	director	1 HORIZON WAY, C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS, INC., DEERFIELD IL 60015
Vineet R. Jindal	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O RENEO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 12230 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 230, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Gregory J. Flesher	director, officer: President and CEO	19900 MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 550, IRVINE CA 92612
Bali Muralidhar	director	C/O EXICURE, INC., 8045 LAMON AVENUE, SUITE 410, SKOKIE IL 60077
Wendy S. Johnson	officer: Chief Development Officer	800 E. LEIGH STREET, SUITE 209, RICHMOND VA 21219
New Enterprise Associates 15, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Rivervest Venture Fund Iii (ohio), L.p.	10 percent owner	11000 CEDAR AVENUE, SUITE 100, CLEVELAND OH 44106-3502
Rivervest Venture Fund Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	7733 FORSYTH BOULEVARD, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Stacey Denenberg Seltzer	director	C/O AISLING CAPITAL, 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106