Revance Therapeutics (Revance Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Revance Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Revance Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Revance Therapeutics (Revance Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Revance Therapeutics Inc (NAS:RVNC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RTI:Germany

Address

1222 Demonbreun Street, Suite 2000, Nashville, TN, USA, 37203

Website

https://www.revance.com

Revance Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company focused on aesthetic and therapeutic offerings, including its neuromodulator product, DaxibotulinumtoxinA for Injection. The company has launched a prestige aesthetics portfolio, which includes the RHA Collection of dermal fillers and the HintMD platform. Its main products include DaxibotulinumtoxinA for Injection and DaxibotulinumtoxinA for Injection Aesthetics. The operating business segments are the Product and the Service Segment. The Products segment generates maximum revenue and is engaged in the research and development of aesthetic and therapeutic products.

Executives

Dwight Moxie	officer: SVP, GC & Secretary	7555 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, NEWARK CA 94560
Mark J Foley	director	ZELTIQ AESTHETICS INC., 4698 WILLOW ROAD SUITE 100, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Tobin Schilke	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7000 SHORELINE COURT, #371, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Carey Oconnor Kolaja	director	C/O REVANCE THERAPEUTICS, INC, 1222 DEMONBREUN STREET, SUITE 1001, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Dustin S Sjuts	officer: President	7555 GATEWAY BLVD, NEWARK CA 94560
Vlad Coric	director	C/O BIOHAVEN PHARMACEUTICAL HOLDING COMP, 234 CHURCH STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Aubrey Rankin	director	C/O REVANCE THERAPEUTICS, INC, 7555 GATEWAY BLVD, NEWARK CA 94560
Angus C. Russell	director	C/O INTERMUNE, INC., 3280 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005
Olivia C Ware	director	11726 SAN VICENTE BLVD, SUITE 650, LOS ANGELES CA 90049
Chris Nolet	director	C/O REVANCE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 7555 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, NEWARK CA 94560
Jill Beraud	director	C/O LEVI STRAUSS & CO., 1155 BATTERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
L Daniel Browne	director, officer: CEO and President	7555 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, NEWARK CA 94560
Cyril Allouche	officer: Principal Financial Officer	7555 GATEWAY BLVD., NEWARK CA 94560
Lauren P Silvernail	officer: CFO, Seretary & EVP Corp Dev.	15279 ALTON PARKWAY, SUITE #100, IRVINE CA 92618
Caryn Gordon Mcdowell	officer: SVP, GC & Secretary	280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080