Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (Rhythm Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:RYTM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RYTM:Mexico 1RV:Germany

Address

222 Berkeley Street, 12th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02116

Website

http://www.rhythmtx.com

Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in development and commercialization of therapies for patients with rare diseases. It is focused on the development and commercialization of peptide therapeutics for the treatment of gastrointestinal, or GI, diseases, and genetic deficiencies that result in metabolic disorders. The company's product candidate is setmelanotide (RM 493), which is a potent, melanocortin 4, or MC4, receptor agonist for the treatment of rare genetic disorders of obesity caused by MC4 pathway deficiencies.

Executives

Joseph Shulman	officer: Chief Technical Officer	C/O RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, SUITE 1200, BOSTON MA 02116
Hunter C Smith	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O GENESEE & WYOMING INC., 20 WEST AVENUE, DARIEN CT 06820
Jennifer Chien	officer: EVP, Head of North America	C/O KRYSTAL BIOTECH, INC., 2100 WHARTON STREET, SUITE 701, PITTSBURGH PA 15203
Christopher Paul German	officer: Corporate Controller & CAO	C/O RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, SUITE 1200, BOSTON MA 02116
Pamela J. Cramer	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, SUITE 1200, BOSTON MA 02116
William T. Roberts	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, SUITE 1200, BOSTON MA 02116
Yann Mazabraud	officer: EVP, Head of International	C/O TREVI THERAPEUTICS, INC., 195 CHURCH STREET, FLOOR 14, NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Linda Shapiro Manning	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, SUITE 1200, BOSTON MA 02116
David P Meeker	director	C/O PENWEST PHARMACEUTICALS CO, 39 OLD RIDGEBURY ROAD SUITE 11, DANBURY CT 06810
Todd Foley	director, 10 percent owner	THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Lynn A. Tetrault	director	12701 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, SUITE 9, FORT MYERS FL 33913
Camille L Bedrosian	director	C/O ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Nithya Desikan	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	82 BAY STATE ROAD, BELMONT MA 02478
Rajeev M. Shah	10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116