What is Sage Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Sage Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Sage Therapeutics (Sage Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
215 First Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142
Sage Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on brain health medicines. The company is targeting diseases and disorders of the brain with three key focus areas: depression, neurology and neuropsychiatry; also targeting two critical central nervous system, or CNS, receptor systems, GABA and NMDA. The GABA receptor family, which is recognized as the inhibitory neurotransmitter in the CNS, mediates downstream neurologic and bodily function via activation of GABAA receptors. The NMDA-type receptors of the glutamate receptor system are a excitatory receptor system in the CNS. Dysfunction in these systems is implicated in a broad range of CNS disorders.
Executives
| Elizabeth Barrett |
director |
C/O SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Jessica Federer |
director |
C/O SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Jeffrey M Jonas |
director, officer: See Remarks |
ROBERTS SHERIDAN & KOTEL, 12 EAST 49TH STREET 30TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Barry E Greene |
director |
C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502 |
| Laura Gault |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 16, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| George Golumbeski |
director |
C/O CELGENE CORP., 86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
| Christopher Benecchi |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| James M Frates |
director |
88 SIDNEY ST, CAMBRIDGE MA 021394136 |
| Biogen Inc. |
10 percent owner |
225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Biogen Ma Inc. |
10 percent owner |
225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Albert Robichaud |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Michael Cloonan |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
C/O SAGE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Anne Marie Cook |
officer: General Counsel |
101 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1850, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Steven M Paul |
director |
C/O ELI LITTY & CO, LIIY CORPORATE CENTER DC 1093, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285 |
| Kimi Iguchi |
officer: See Remarks |
100 FOXBOROUGH BOULEVARD, SUITE 240, FOXBOROUGH MA 02035 |
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