Sanchez Energy (Sanchez Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Sanchez Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sanchez Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sanchez Energy (Sanchez Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Sanchez Energy Corp (OTCPK:SCAZQ.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1000 Main Street, Suite 3000, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.sanchezenergycorp.com

Sanchez Energy Corp is a United States-based independent exploration and production company. It is focused on the acquisition and development of U.S. onshore unconventional oil and natural gas resources, with the focus on the horizontal development of resource potential from the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. The company also holds an undeveloped acreage position in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) in Mississippi and Louisiana. It generates its revenue from the sale of oil, natural gas liquid sales, and others.

Executives

Eugene I Davis	director	8540 GANDER CREEK DRIVE, MIAMISBURG OH 45342
Adam C. Zylman	director	1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 3000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Cameron W. George	officer: Interim CFO	1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 3000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Nelson Robert V. Iii	director	1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 3000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Gso Capital Solutions Associates Ii Lp	10 percent owner	C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Energy Partners-d Associates Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Capital Solutions Associates Ii (cayman) Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Capital Solutions Associates Ii (delaware) Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Capital Opportunities Fund Iii Lp	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Energy Partners-c Ii Lp	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Energy Select Opportunities Fund Lp	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Energy Partners-d Lp	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Energy Partners-b Lp	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Energy Partners-c Lp	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Energy Partners-a Associates Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154