What is Scandium International Mining Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Scandium International Mining Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Scandium International Mining (Scandium International Mining) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1390 Ione Pass Trail, Reno, NV, USA, 89523
Scandium International Mining Corp is a mineral exploration and development company. The company is focused on the development of scandium, rare earth minerals, and other specialty metals, including nickel, cobalt, boron, manganese, tantalum, titanium, and zirconium. Its principal project is the Nyngan Scandium Project located in New South Wales, Australia. The company also operates the Honeybugle Scandium Project.
Executives
| Peter Banghart Evensen |
director |
C/O SCANDIUM INTERNATIONAL MINING CORP., 1430 GREG STREET, SUITE 501, SPARKS NV 89431 |
| Rolf Christian Evensen |
director |
C/O SCANDIUM INTERNATIONAL MINING CORP., 1430 GREG STREET, SUITE 501, SPARKS NV 89431 |
| Scandium Investments Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O SHENASSA & COMPANY, 11620 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 460, LOS ANGELES CA 90025 |
| Nigel J. Ricketts |
officer: Vice President |
453 GEORGE HOLT DRIVE, MT CROSBY, QLD C3 4306 |
| Andrew Carlyle Greig |
director |
1 MACQUARIE ST, TENERIFFE, QLD C3 4005 |
| James Richard Rothwell |
director |
472 S STATE STREET, SUITE 201, BELLINGHAM WA 98225 |
| Kudu Partners Lp |
10 percent owner |
2310 N. MOLTER ROAD, #309, LIBERTY LAKE WA 99019 |
| Adam Knight |
officer: Vice President |
552 12TH STREET, ELKO NV 89801 |
| John Grubb |
director |
8325 OLD AZTEC HIGHWAY, FLORA VISTA NM 87415 |
| Warren K. Davis |
director |
10553 SNOW SHOE CIRCLE, TRUCKEE CA 96161 |
| Edward H Dickinson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1430 GREG ST. STE. 501, SPARKS NV 89431 |
| Daniel E Wolfus |
director |
10350 WILSHIRE BLVD, #1604, LOS ANGELES CA 90024 |
| Michael C. O'brien |
officer: CFO |
888 DUNSMUIR STREET, 11TH FLOOR, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3K4 |
| Barry T. Davies |
director |
#502 - 1430 GREY STREET, SPARKS NV 89431 |
| George F. Putnam |
director, officer: CEO & President |
#502 - 1430 GREG STREET, SPARKS NV 89431 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
SCYYF has been successfully added to your