Superior Group Of (Superior Group Of) Predictability Rank

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What is Superior Group Of Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Superior Group Of Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Superior Group Of (Superior Group Of) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Superior Group Of Companies Inc (NAS:SGC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6G6:Germany

Address

10055 Seminole Boulevard, Seminole, FL, USA, 33772

Website

https://www.superiorgroupofcompanies.com

Superior Group Of Companies Inc designs apparel products. The company's operating segment includes Branded Products; Healthcare Apparel and Contact Centers. It generates maximum revenue from the Branded Products segment. The Branded Products segment produce and sell customized merchandising solutions, promotional products and branded uniform programs to customers.

Executives

Michael Koempel	officer: CFO	10055 SEMINOLE BLVD, SEMINOLE FL 33777
Michael Benstock	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SUPERIOR UNIFORM GROUP INC, 10055 SEMINOLE BLVD, SEMINOLE FL 33772
Todd E Siegel	director	2003 GANDY BLVD. NORTH, SUITE 800, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33702
Catherine Beldotti Donlan	officer: President, SUG Healthcare	10055 SEMINOLE BLVD, SEMINOLE FL 33777
Paul V Mellini	director	SUPERIOR UNIFORM GROUP, INC., 10055 SEMINOLE BLVD., SEMINOLE FL 33772
Sidney Kirschner	director	C/O SUPERIOR UNIFORM GROUP INC, PO BOX 4002, SEMINOLE FL 33775
Jake Himelstein	officer: President, BAMKO, LLC	10055 SEMINOLE BLVD, SEMINOLE FL 33777
Robin Hensley	director	C/O SUPERIOR UNIFORM GROUP INC, PO BOX 4002, SEMINOLE FL 33775
Philip Koosed	other: President of BAMKO, LLC	10055 SEMINOLE BLVD., SEMINOLE X1 33772
Venita Elaine Fields	director	10055 SEMINOLE BLVD., SEMINOLE FL 33772
Jordan M. Alpert	officer: Secretary & General Counsel	SUPERIOR UNIFORM GROUP, INC., 10055 SEMINOLE BLVD., SEMINOLE FL 33772
Michael Attinella	officer: CFO & Treasurer	C/O SUPERIOR GROUP OF COMPANIES, INC., 10055 SEMINOLE BLVE, SEMINOLE FL 33772
Demott Andrew D Jr	officer: Senior V.P., CFO	C/O SUPERIOR UNIFORM GROUP INC, 10055 SEMINOLE BLVD, SEMINOLE FL 33772
Gerald M Benstock	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board	SUPERIOR UNIFORM GROUP INC, 10055 SEMINOLE BLVD, SEMINOLE FL 33772
Dominic Leide	V.P. Admin & Customer Support, other: President of The Office Gurus	SUPERIOR UNIFORM GROUP, INC., 10055 SEMINOLE BLVD., SEMINOLE FL 33772