Strategic Realty Trust (Strategic Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Strategic Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Strategic Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Strategic Realty Trust (Strategic Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Strategic Realty Trust Inc (OTCPK:SGIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

550 W Adams S, Suite 200, Chicago, IL, USA, 60661

Website

https://www.srtreit.com

Strategic Realty Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust that invests and manages a portfolio of income-producing retail properties in the United States, real estate-owning entities, and real estate-related assets.

Executives

Domenic Lanni	officer: Chief Operating Officer	550 WEST ADAMS STREET, SUITE 200, CHICAGO IL 60661
Ryan M. Hess	officer: Chief Financial Officer	550 WEST ADAMS STREET, SUITE 200, CHICAGO IL 60661
Matthew D Schreiber	officer: COO, SVP & Assistant Secretary	550 WEST ADAMS STREET, SUITE 200, CHICAGO IL 60661
Julia Kholodenko	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	66 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 100, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Mark Bradley Kettmann	officer: Chief Financial Officer	66 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 100, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Todd Allan Spitzer	director	7420 MORNINGLORY WAY, ORANGE CA 92869
Terri Garnick	officer: Chief Financial Officer	400 SOUTH EL CAMINO REAL, SAN MATEO CA 94402-1708
Andrew Batinovich	director, officer: CEO and CFO	200 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 2100, IRVINE CA 92618
Maier John B Ii	director	4695 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 1100, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Dee R Balch	director	1900 MAIN STREET, SUITE 700, IRVINE CA 92614
Peter K Kompaniez	director	26 EXECUTIVE PARK, SUITE 125, IRVINE CA 92614
Jeffrey S. Rogers	director	1900 MAIN STREET, SUITE 700, IRVINE CA 92614
Anthony W Thompson	director, officer: COB and CEO	C/O THOMPSON FAMILY OFFICE, 1901 MAIN STREET, SUITE 108, IRVINE CA 92614
Jack R Maurer	director, officer: Vice Chairman and President	1551 NORTH TUSTIN AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA ANA CA 92705
James R. Wolford	officer: CFO, Treasurer & Secretary	233 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 310, SANTA MONICA CA 90401

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