Avic Heavy Machinery Co (SHSE:600765) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1996. Start your Free Trial

What is Avic Heavy Machinery Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avic Heavy Machinery Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Avic Heavy Machinery Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Avic Heavy Machinery Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Avic Heavy Machinery Co (SHSE:600765) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Avic Heavy Machinery Co Ltd (SHSE:600765) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 501, Beitun Road, Xintian Village, Wudang District, Guizhou Province, Guiyang, CHN, 550018

Website

http://www.hm.avic.com

Avic Heavy Machinery Co Ltd is a China-based company engaged in the development, production, and sale of both military and civilian-used high-end equipment. It manufactures hydraulic parts, hydraulic systems, forging products, heat exchangers and gas turbines in China. The company operates in the business areas of Forging business, Hydraulic business, and New energy business. In the Forging business, the company mainly produces die forgings, free forgings, isothermal forgings and rings of different materials. In Hydraulic business, the main products are various types of heat exchangers, high-speed rotating machinery (turbine, pumps, fans), oil tanks, cooling devices, high-temperature insulation components.

Executives

Li Yang	senior management
Hu Ling Hong	Directors, senior managers
Ji Sheng Li	senior management
Zhang Zheng Yuan	senior management
Mao Yuan	Supervisors
Ran Xing	Director
Wang Zhi Hong	senior management
Qiao Kun	senior management
Liu Zhong Wen	senior management
Sun Ji Bing	senior management
Li Xue Qin	Director
Jiang Chao	Director
Ji Su Chun	senior management
Huang Yun	Director
Hu Hai Yin	senior management

Avic Heavy Machinery Co (SHSE:600765) Headlines

No Headlines