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State Investors Bancorp (State Investors Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is State Investors Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

State Investors Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

State Investors Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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State Investors Bancorp (State Investors Bancorp) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » State Investors Bancorp Inc (NAS:SIBC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
IBTN MNMB BSFO CCNB MVLY PPBN CBKM KISB CBAF WDFN VBFC BCOW BCTF HBSI HBK SGB OTTW STBI SVBT MSVB
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.stateinvestors.com
State Investors Bancorp Inc was organized by State-Investors Bank in February 2011. The Company is a savings and loan holding company regulated by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. State-Investors Bank is a federally chartered savings bank located in Metairie, Louisiana, which is in Jefferson Parish. State-Investors Bank's business consists of attracting deposits from the general public and using those funds to originate residential and commercial loans in Jefferson, Orleans and St. Tammany Parishes within the seven parish New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner Metropolitan Statistical Area. It lending activities are; loan portfolio composition, origination and purchase of loans, loan originations, contractual terms to final maturities, one- to four-family residential real estate loans, commercial real estate loans, land loans, multi-family residential loans, residential construction loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, consumer non-real estate loans, commercial business loans, loan origination and other fees. The Company competes with commercial banks, other savings banks and savings associations, mortgage-banking companies, short-term money market funds and other corporate and government securities funds, mutual funds and from other non-depository financial institutions such as brokerage firms and insurance companies. The types of loans that State Investors Bancorp may originate or purchase are subject to federal and state laws and regulations.

State Investors Bancorp (State Investors Bancorp) Headlines

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