Sientra (Sientra) Predictability Rank

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What is Sientra Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sientra Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sientra Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sientra (Sientra) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Sientra Inc (OTCPK:SIENQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

S0Z0:Germany

Address

3333 Michelson Drive, Suite 650, Irvine, CA, USA, 92612

Website

https://www.sientra.com

Sientra Inc is a part of the healthcare sector in the United States. Its business involves the provision of silicone gel breast implants for use in breast augmentation and breast reconstruction procedures. Its operating segments are Breast Products and miraDry. The Breast Products segment focuses on sales of breast implants, tissue expanders and scar management products under the brands OPUS, AlloX2, Dermaspan, Softspan, and BIOCORNEUM. The miraDry segment focuses on sales of the miraDry System and bioTips. Geographically, the firm generates a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Alexander W. Casdin	director	C/O IGNYTA, INC., 11095 FLINTKOTE AVENUE, SUITE D, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Ronald Menezes	director, officer: President and CEO	420 S. FAIRVIEW AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA BARBARA CA 93117
Van Hove Caroline F.	director	420 S. FAIRVIEW AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA BARBARA CA 93117
Oliver Christian Bennett	officer: General Counsel and VP	420 S. FAIRVIEW AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA BARBARA CA 93117
Andrew C Schmidt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1700 CARNEGIE AVE, SUITE 100, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Irina Erenburg	director	420 S. FAIRVIEW AVENUE, SANTA BARBARA CA 93117
Nori Ebersole	director	C/O UROVANT SCIENCES, INC., 5151 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, SUITE 250, IRVINE CA 92617
Valerie J Miller	officer: VP, Controller and Interim CFO
Paul Sean Little	officer: Chief Financial Officer	SIENTRA, INC., 420 SOUTH FAIRVIEW AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA BARBARA CA 93117
Jeffrey M Nugent	director	1875 SOUTH GRANT STREET, SUITE 110, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Keith J Sullivan	director	C/O RELIANT TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 464 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Kevin C Oboyle	director	5964 LA PLACE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Mary Fisher	director	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 15 SKYLINE DRIVE, HAWTHORNE NY 10532
Timothy Haines	director, 10 percent owner	38 JERMYN STREET, LONDON X0 SW1Y 6DN
Philippe Schaison	director	C/O ACTAVIS PLC MORRIS CORP CENTER III, 400 INTERPACE PARKWAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054