SILO Pharma (SILO Pharma) Predictability Rank

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What is SILO Pharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SILO Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SILO Pharma (SILO Pharma) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » SILO Pharma Inc (NAS:SILO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

560 Sylvan Avenue, Suite 3160, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, USA, 07632

Website

https://www.silopharma.com

SILO Pharma Inc is a developmental stage biopharmaceutical company focused on merging traditional therapeutics with psychedelic research. The company is engaged in developing innovative solutions to address a variety of underserved conditions which includes Alzheimer's; Parkinson's; Multiple Sclerosis (MS); Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA); and Stress-Induced Psychiatric Disorders.

Executives

Eric Weisblum	director, officer: President and CCO	285 GRAND AVENUE, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631
Daniel E. Ryweck	officer: Chief Financial Officer	712 VISTA BLVD #305, WACONIA MN 55387
Jeff Pavell	director	1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 1039, NEW YORK NY 10020
Kevin Munoz	director	560 SYLVAN AVE, SUITE 3160, ENGLEWOOD CLIFF NJ 07632
Wayne Linsley	director	1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 1039, NEW YORK NY 10020
Adam C Wasserman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1643 ROYAL GROVE WAY, WESTON FL 33327
Leonard M Schiller	director
Joel Alan Stone,	director	1772 SABAL PALM DR., BOCA RATON FL 33432
Parker Walter Van Eps	director	C/O PROSPECT ENERGY CORPORATION, 10 E. 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Richard Brand	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	10 E. 40TH STREET, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Whalehaven Capital Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	P O BOX HM 1027, HAMILTON D0 HMDX
Vadim Mats	officer: VP of Business Development	285 GRAND AVENUE, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631
Donald Ptalis	director, officer: CFO	72 POND ROAD, WOODBURY NY 11797
Melvin Schlossberg	director, 10 percent owner, officer: PRESIDENT, CEO & SECRETARY	72 POND ROAD, WOODBURY NY 11797