Scienjoy Holding (Scienjoy Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Scienjoy Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Scienjoy Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Scienjoy Holding (Scienjoy Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Scienjoy Holding Corp (NAS:SJ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 99 Wangzhou Road, RM 1118, 11th Floor, Building 3, Liangzhu Sub-district, Yuhang District, Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, CHN, 311113

Website

https://www.scienjoy.com

Scienjoy Holding Corp is a show live streaming video entertainment social platform in China. The company operates a mobile live-streaming business by which it provides live-streaming entertainment from professional broadcasters to the end-users, allowing for the operation of live social video communities. It operates online live-streaming brands, with their respective websites & mobile apps, Showself, Lehai, & Haixiu, using Scienjoy's own mobile applications. Through the app, users can also view photos posted by broadcasters on their personal pages, leave comments, & engage in private chats with broadcasters. The users can also play simple, fun games using virtual currencies within the video rooms while watching the live streaming of a broadcaster. Geographically, it operates in PRC.

Executives

Yibing Liu	director	NO. 402 JINSHANXILI 18,, HULI DISTRICT, XIAMEN F4 361006
Lavacano Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	#1101, UNIT 1, BUILDING 6 NO. 2 XIBAHE, DONGLI, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100028
Xiaowu He	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	205-1701 MCCOWAN RD., SCARBOROUGH Z4 M1S 2Y3
Jian Sun	director	NO. 39 SOUTH COLLEGE RD.,, HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100086
Huifeng Chang	director	10 EASTERN DRIVE, PRINCENTON JUNCTION NJ 08550
Denny Tang	officer: Chief Financial Officer	EAST GARDEN, UPPER EAST SIDE, ZONE 1, 6 DONGSIHUAN NORTH RD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Bo Wan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operating Officer	JIA NO. 34, SHENGGU NANLI CHAOYANG, DISTRICT, 3RD FL, BEIJING F4 100029
Wby Entertainment Holdings Ltd.	10 percent owner	3RD FLOOR, JIA NO. 34,, SHENGGU NANLI, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100028
Jining Li	director, 10 percent owner	FLAT A, 6/F, BLOCK A, TONNOCHY TOWERS, NO.272 JAFFE RD, WANCHAI, HONG KONG F4 00000
Oriental Holdings Ltd	director	NO.272 JAFFE RD, WANCHAI, FLAT A, 6/F, TONNOCHY TOWERS, HONG KONG F4 00000
Kinpui Choi	director	FLAT A, 6/F, BLOCK A, TONNOCHY TOWERS, NO. 272 JAFFE ROAD, WANCHAI, HONG KONG F4 00000
Yongsheng Liu	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	FLAT A, 6/F, BLOCK A, TONNOCHY TOWERS, N0. 272 JAFFE ROAD, WANCHAI, HONG KONG F4 00000
Weiping Chen	director	FLAT A, 6/F, BLOCK A, TONNOCHY TOWERS, NO. 272 JAFFE ROAD, WANCHAI, HONG KONG F4 00000
Simin Xie	director	FLAT A, 6/F, BLOCK A, TONNOCHY TOWERS, N0 272 JAFFE ROAD, WANCHAI, HONG KONG F4 00000
Ray Lei Chen	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	FLAT A, 6/F, BLOCK A, TONNOCHY TOWERS, NO.272 JAFFE ROAD, WANCHAI, HONG KONG F4 00000