Solid Power (Solid Power) Predictability Rank

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What is Solid Power Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Solid Power Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Solid Power (Solid Power) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Solid Power Inc (NAS:SLDP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SLDPW:USA

Address

486 S. Pierce Avenue, Suite E, Louisville, CO, USA, 80027

Website

https://www.solidpowerbattery.com

Solid Power Inc is engaged in developing all-solid-state battery cell technology to enable the next generation of batteries for the EV and other markets. The company's planned business model is to license its all-solid-state battery cell designs and manufacturing know-how to top tier battery manufacturers or automotive original equipment manufacturers and to sell its sulfide-based solid electrolyte for incorporation into all-solid-state battery cells.

Executives

Joshua Buettner-garrett	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Steven H Goldberg	director	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Kaled Awada	director	7450 N. MCCORMICK BLVD., SKOKIE IL 60076
Susan M Kreh	director	18400 PLEASANT STREET, BROOKFIELD WI 53045
Van Scoter John C.	director, officer: President & CEO	486 S. PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Erik J Anderson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Douglas M Campbell	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
John Joseph Stephens	director	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Mary Ann Wright	director	486 S. PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Volta Energy Technologies, Llc	10 percent owner	28365 DAVIS PARKWAY, SUITE 202, WARRENVILLE IL 60555
Aleksandra A Miziolek	director	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Lesa B Roe	director	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE, SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Johnson Derek Colby	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Rainer Feurer	director	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
David B Jansen	director, officer: President	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027