Soleno Therapeutics (Soleno Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Soleno Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Soleno Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Soleno Therapeutics (Soleno Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Soleno Therapeutics Inc (NAS:SLNO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6XC:Germany

Address

203 Redwood Shores Parkway, Suite 500, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94065

Website

https://www.soleno.life

Soleno Therapeutics Inc is focused on the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics for the treatment of rare diseases. Its product candidates comprise Diazoxide Choline Controlled-Release tablets, which is an oral tablet for the treatment of Prader-Willi Syndrome.

Executives

Patricia C Hirano	officer: See Remarks	1235 RADIO ROAD, SUITE 110, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Kristen Yen	officer: See Remarks	3 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 160, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Bhatnagar Anish	director, officer: See Remarks	3 TWIN DOLPHIN DRIVE, SUITE 160, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
James H Mackaness	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1212 TERRA BELLA AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Vivo Opportunity Fund Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Vivo Opportunity, Llc	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Abingworth Bioventures Vii Lp	10 percent owner	PRINCES HOUSE, 38 JERMYN STREET, LONDON X0 SW1Y 6DN
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Matthew Pauls	director	9 DEER PARK DRIVE, SUITE C, MONMOUTH JUNCTION NJ 08852
Joseph Edelman	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Llp Abingworth	10 percent owner	38 JERMYN STREET, LONDON X0 SW1Y 6DN
Jack W Schuler	10 percent owner	100 N. FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 360, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Carlyle Holdings I L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Carlyle Holdings I Gp Sub L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505