The Simply Good Foods Co (The Simply Good Foods Co) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2016. Start your Free Trial

What is The Simply Good Foods Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Simply Good Foods Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

The Simply Good Foods Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Simply Good Foods Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

The Simply Good Foods Co (The Simply Good Foods Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » The Simply Good Foods Co (NAS:SMPL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

76L:Germany

Address

1225, 17th Street, Suite 1000, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

http://www.thesimplygoodfoodscompany.com

The Simply Good Foods Co is a consumer packaged food and beverage company. It provides low-carbohydrate, high protein bars, shakes, and other products such as confections, chips, and cookies under the Atkins and Quest brands. The company distributes its products in retail channels, predominantly in North America, including grocery, club, and mass merchandise, as well as through e-commerce, convenience, and other channels.

Executives

Susan Hunsberger	officer: SVP and Chief HR Officer	1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Heflin Stuart E. Jr.	officer: SVP & General Manager, Quest	1225 17TH ST., SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Brian K. Ratzan	director	3 GREENWICH OFFICE PARK, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06831
Timothy Richard Kraft	officer: Gen. Counsel & Corp. Secretary	THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY, 1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Ryan Thomas	officer: SVP and GM Atkins marketing	1225 17TH ST., SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Jill M. Short	officer: Chief Customer Officer	1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Geoff E Tanner	director, officer: President and COO	ONE STRAWBERRY LANE, ORRVILLE OH 44667
Timothy Allen Matthews	officer: VP, Controller and CAO	1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Robert G. Montgomery	director	3 GREENWICH OFFICE PARK, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06831
Jeremy Scott Ivie	officer: Chief Product Tech Officer	1225 17TH ST., SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Linda Zink	officer: Chief Marketing Officer Quest	1225 17TH ST., SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Joseph Scalzo	director, officer: CEO and President	1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Conyers Park Sponsor Llc	director, 10 percent owner	31 WEST 52ND STREET 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
C Scott Parker	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Joseph J Schena	director	C/O CONYERS PARK II ACQUISITION CORP., 1 GREENWICH OFFICE PARK, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06831