Southcoast Financial (Southcoast Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Southcoast Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Southcoast Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Southcoast Financial (Southcoast Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Southcoast Financial Corp (NAS:SOCB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

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Address

Website

http://www.southcoastbank.com

Southcoast Financial Corp is a South Carolina corporation organized in 1999 under the laws of South Carolina. It is a holding company for Southcoast Community Bank or the Bank. The Bank offers a full array of commercial banking services. Deposit services include business and personal checking accounts, NOW accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, various term certificates of deposit, IRA accounts, and other deposit services. Bank's deposits are attracted from individuals and small businesses. The Bank does not offer trust services. The Bank operates from its offices in Mt. Pleasant, Charleston, Moncks Corner, Johns Island, Summerville, Goose Creek and North Charleston, South Carolina. The Bank offers secured and unsecured, short-to-intermediate term loans, with floating and fixed interest rates for commercial, consumer and residential purposes. Consumer loans include, among others: car loans, home equity improvement loans, personal expenditure loans, education loans, overdraft lines of credit, and the like. The Bank makes commercial loans to small and middle market businesses.Commercial loans may be unsecured if loans are of short duration and made to a customer with demonstrated ability to pay, but often loans are secured. Collateral for commercial loans may be listed securities, equipment, inventory, accounts receivable or other business assets but would usually be local real estate. The Bank usually makes commercial loans to businesses to provide working capital, expand physical assets or acquire assets. The Bank also makes loans guaranteed by the U. S. Small Business Administration. The Bank makes loans secured by real estate mortgages that are usually for the acquisition, improvement or construction and development of residential and other properties. Residential real estate loans consist mainly of first and second mortgage loans on single family homes, with some mortgage loans on multifamily homes. Real estate construction loans typically consist of financing for the construction of 1-4 family dwellings and some non-farm, non-residential real estate. Other services the Bank offers include residential mortgage loan origination services, safe deposit boxes, business courier service, night depository service, telephone banking, MasterCard brand credit cards, tax deposits, and 24-hour automated teller machines. The bank holding companies and banks are regulated under federal and state law.