Speed Commerce (Speed Commerce) Predictability Rank

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What is Speed Commerce Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Speed Commerce Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Speed Commerce (Speed Commerce) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Speed Commerce Inc (OTCPK:SPDC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1303 East Arapaho Road, Suite 200, Richardson, TX, USA, 75081

Website

http://www.speedcommerce.com

Speed Commerce Inc is a provider of flexible end-to-end e-commerce services to retailers and manufacturers. It provides Web platform development and hosting, order management, fulfillment, logistics and contact center services, which provide clients with transaction-based services and information management tools. It manages fulfillment center from four facilities located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, and Texas, utilizing automation technology, such as unit sortation, pick-to-pack conveyors and radio frequency (RF) scanning.

Executives

Richard Willis	director, officer: President and CEO	7400 49TH AVE. NORTH, NEW HOPE MN 55428
Bradley J. Shisler	director	7400 49TH AVENUE NORTH, NEW HOPE MN 55428
Rebecca Lynn Atchison	director	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Kathleen P Iverson	director	5900 GOLDEN HILLS DRIVE, GOLDEN VALLEY MN 55416
Steven R Becker	other: Member of a 13(d) 10% Group	5525 NAKOMA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75209
Northern Right Capital Management, L.p.	other: Member of a 13(d) 10% Group	9 OLD KINGS HWY. S., 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Bc Advisors Llc	other: Member of a 13(d) 10% Group	500 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75201
Becker Drapkin Partners, L.p.	other: Member of a 13(d) 10% Group	500 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75201
Northern Right Capital (qp), L.p.	other: Member of a 13(d) 10% Group	9 OLD KINGS HWY. S., 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Matthew A Drapkin	other: Member of a 13(d) 10% Group	10 CORBIN DRIVE, 3RD FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
David Dalvey	director	C/O BLUE ROCK ADVISORS, INC., 80 SOUTH EIGHTH STREET SUITE 3915, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402