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Startengine Crowdfunding (Startengine Crowdfunding) Predictability Rank


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What is Startengine Crowdfunding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Startengine Crowdfunding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Startengine Crowdfunding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Startengine Crowdfunding (Startengine Crowdfunding) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Startengine Crowdfunding Inc (OTCPK:STGC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4100 West Alameda Avenue, 3rd Floor, Burbank, CA, USA, 91505
Website
https://www.startengine.com
Startengine Crowdfunding Inc is an equity crowdfunding platform. The company allows investors and common people to invest in start-up projects and early-stage companies. Also, it facilitates small and medium-sized businesses in raising capital at every stage and provides related services.
Executives
Joshua Daniel Amster officer: VP, Fundraising 16029 SKYTOP RD ENCINO CA 91436
Jonathan Reyes officer: Chief Compliance Officer 3900 W ALAMEDA AVE STE 1200 BURBANK CA 91505
Aubrey Chernick 10 percent owner C/O STARTENGINE CROWDFUNDING INC. 3900 W ALAMEDA AVE STE 1200 BURBANK CA 91505
Lee Miller 10 percent owner 1014 23RD ST. SANTA MONICA CA 90403
Johanna Cronin officer: Chief Marketing Officer 3900 W ALAMEDA AVE STE 1200 BURBANK CA 91505
Howard Edward Marks director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 2900 W ALAMEDA AVE SUITE 1200 BURBANK CA 91505
Ronald David Miller director, 10 percent owner 3900 W ALAMEDA AVE STE 1200 BURBANK CA 91505
Jebsen Allen C D officer: SVP, Fundraising 3900 W ALAMEDA AVE SUITE 1200 BURBANK CA 91505
Hunter Strassman officer: VP, Finance C/O STARTENGINE CROWDFUNDING INC. 3900 W ALAMEDA AVE STRE 1200 BURBANK CA 91515
Joeseph Mathews officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O STARTENGINE CROWDFUNDING INC. 3900 W ALAMEDA AVE. SUITE 1200 BURBANK CA 91505

Startengine Crowdfunding (Startengine Crowdfunding) Headlines

From GuruFocus

This Insider Just Sold Shares of Startengine Crowdfunding Inc

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 12-22-2022