Surgepays (Surgepays) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2007. Start your Free Trial

What is Surgepays Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Surgepays Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Surgepays Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Surgepays's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Surgepays (Surgepays) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Surgepays Inc (NAS:SURG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9B90:Germany

Address

3124 Brother Boulevard, Suite 104, Bartlett, TN, USA, 38133

Website

https://www.surgepays.com

Surgepays Inc is a fintech company focused on the underbanked community. It provides services to financial technology, telecommunications, and digital media companies. Its operating segment includes Surge Blockchain and Other; Surge Logics; TW and ECS (Electronic Check Services). The Company's blockchain platform utilizes a suite of financial and prepaid products to convert corner stores into tech hubs for underbanked neighbourhoods. The neighbourhood stores are profit partners that provide a multichannel distribution network for SurgePays.

Executives

Kevin Brian Cox	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	3124 BROTHER BLVD, STE. 104, BARTLETT W6 38133
Laurie Weisberg	director	C/O JERRICK MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., 2050 CENTER AVENUE, SUITE 640, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Richard Earl Schurfeld	director	1600 MADISON AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, TOLEDO OH 43604
John Mott	officer: CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER	890 W, HILLWOOD DM, NASHVILLE TN 37205
David Allen May	director	12131 BROOKS RIVER DR, ARLINGTON TN 38002
Nuzzo Anthony P. Jr	director, officer: President and COO	3124 BROTHER BLVD, STE 104, BARTLETT TN 38133
Anthony Geogre Evers	officer: Chief Financial Officer	701 ASHTON LANE, SOUTH ELGIN IL 60177
David N Keys	director	3770 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, STE 300, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
David C Ansani	director	1375 VALLEY RD, BANNOCKBURN L3 60015
Campbell Ted Dudley Ii	director	PO BOX 1358, SPRING BRANCH TX 78070
Clinton W Coldren	director, 10 percent owner, officer: PRESIDENT, CEO & CFO	1535 SONIAT ST.,, NEW ORLEANS LA 70115
Alan G Massara	director	339 NORWOOD AVENUE, AVON BY THE SEA NJ 07717
Ross E Silvey	director, officer: CEO and President	7633 EAST 63RD PLACE, #220, TULSA OK 74133
Vladimir Fedyunin	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO and CFO	PO BOX 158, LIONS BAY A1 VON 2E0