Stran (SWAG) Predictability Rank

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What is Stran Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Stran Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Stran Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Stran & Co Inc (NAS:SWAG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

S9H:Germany

Address

2 Heritage Drive, Suite 600, Quincy, MA, USA, 02171

Website

https://www.stran.com

Stran & Co Inc is an outsourced marketing solutions provider, working closely with customers to develop sophisticated marketing programs that leverage promotional products and loyalty incentive expertise. The company purchases products and branding through various third-party manufacturers and decorators and resells the finished goods to customers.

Executives

David M. Leuci	officer: Chief Information Officer	2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Ashley Marshall	director	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Andrew Stranberg	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Exec. Chm., Treas. and Sec.	C/O GRAUBARD MILLER, 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10174
John Audibert	officer: VP of Growth and SI	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Alan Chippindale	director	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Andrew Shape	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O LONG BLOCKCHAIN CORP., 12-1 DUBON COURT, FARMINGDALE NY 11735
David Browner	officer: Interim CFO	C/O STRAN AND COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Sheila Johnshoy	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Stephen Paradiso	officer: Chief of Staff	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC.,, 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Jason Nolley	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Alejandro Tani	director	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Christopher Rollins	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Randolph Birney	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171
Travis Mccourt	director	C/O STRAN & COMPANY, INC., 2 HERITAGE DRIVE, SUITE 600, QUINCY MA 02171