SpringWorks Therapeutics (SpringWorks Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is SpringWorks Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SpringWorks Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SpringWorks Therapeutics (SpringWorks Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » SpringWorks Therapeutics Inc (NAS:SWTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Washington Boulevard, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

https://www.springworkstx.com

SpringWorks Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company applying a precision medicine approach to acquiring, developing and commercializing life-changing medicines for underserved patient populations suffering from devastating rare diseases and cancer. The company has a differentiated portfolio of small molecule targeted oncology product candidates and is advancing two potentially registrational clinical trials in rare tumor types, as well as several other programs addressing highly prevalent, genetically defined cancers.

Executives

Tai-an Lin	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O SPRINGWORKS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 100 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, STAMFORD CT 06902
Julie Hambleton	director	C/O FIVE PRIME THERAPEUTICS, INC., TWO CORPORATE DRIVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jeffrey Lawrence Schwartz	director, 10 percent owner	C/O BAIN CAPITAL LIFE SCIENCES, LP, 200 CLARENDON STRERET, BOSTON MA 02116
Daniel Pichl	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O SPRINGWORKS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 100 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06902
James Cassidy	officer: Chief Medical Officer	368 NOD HILL ROAD, WILTON CT 06897
Orbimed Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Carlos Alban	director	1 N. WAUKEGAN ROAD, NORTH CHICAGO IL 60064
Saqib Islam	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS, 352 KNOTTER DRIVE, CHESHIRE CT 06410
L. Mary Smith	officer: See Remarks	C/O SPRINGWORKS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 100 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06902
Bain Capital Life Sciences Investors, Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael F. Burgess	officer: Head of Research & Development	C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 402, CAMRIDGE MA 02142
Stephen P Squinto	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 352 KNOTTER DRIVE, CHESHIRE CT 06410
Bhavesh Ashar	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O SPRINGWORKS THERAPEUTICS, 100 WASHINGTON BLVD, STAMFORD CT 05902
Orbimed Capital Gp Vi Llc	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Badreddin Edris	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O SPRINGWORKS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 100 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06902