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Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co (SZSE:002081) Predictability Rank


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What is Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co (SZSE:002081) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co Ltd (SZSE:002081) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:000928 SZSE:000498 SZSE:002051 SHSE:600502 SZSE:300284 SZSE:000090 SHSE:600133 SHSE:603153 SZSE:002482 SZSE:002761 XPAR:DG NSE:LT PWR SHSE:601668 SHSE:601390 TSX:WSP EME J HKSE:01800 XKRX:028260
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 888 West Ring Road, Suzhou, CHN, 215004
Website
http://www.goldmantis.com
Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co Ltd is a China-based company engages in the interior decoration industry. Its principal activities include curtain wall, furniture, landscape, artwork, and mechanical and electrical equipment installation, in China. The company's operating segment includes Construction decoration; Manufacturing and others. It generates maximum revenue from the Construction decoration segment.
Executives
Zhu Xing Quan Directors, executives
Wang Hong Executives
Cao Li Ming Directors, executives
Yang Peng Director
Ni Lin Director
Yang Zhen Director
Yan Duo Lin Directors, executives
Luo Cheng Yun Executives
Dong Sheng Executives
Zhang Jun Supervisors
Yan Yong Fa Supervisors
Bai Ji Zhong Executives
Wang An Li Director
Jiang Ying Supervisors
Mao Guo Ping Executives

Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co (SZSE:002081) Headlines

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