Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co (SZSE:002505) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2010. Start your Free Trial

What is Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co (SZSE:002505) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co Ltd (SZSE:002505) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Lane 2188, Hongqiao Road, No. 25, Hongqiao Business Villa, Changning District, Shanghai, CHN, 200336

Website

http://www.dkifa.com

Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co Ltd is a global farming and food company. The company operates through various business divisions: grain trade, dairy, food distribution, beef cattle, live pigs. Its business has spread all over China, Brazil, New Zealand, Japan, Myanmar, Laos, and many other countries. In addition, the company has controlled approximately 29 original ecological farms in New Zealand, formed all kinds of dairy products under its own brand Theland.

Executives

Shen Wei Ping	Directors, executives
Zhao Wei Mao	Director
Wang Zhang Quan	Director
Yan Dong Ming	Director
Chen Li Ming	Director
Shu Jun	Executives
Yan Fang	Directors, executives
Tian Meng Jun	Supervisors
Ma Geng	Executives
Xiang Qi Zhi	Director
Xia Zheng Qi	Directors, executives
Shu Yue	Directors, executives
Wang Bin	Executives

Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co (SZSE:002505) Headlines

No Headlines