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Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co (SZSE:002705) Predictability Rank


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What is Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co (SZSE:002705) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co Ltd (SZSE:002705) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:603515 SHSE:603355 SZSE:001323 SZSE:002572 SZSE:002242 SZSE:002818 SZSE:002959 SHSE:600651 SHSE:603801 SHSE:603219 SZSE:000333 SHSE:600690 SZSE:000651 TSE:9843 SHSE:603833 TPX SN WHR SZSE:002032 XPAR:SK
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Longzhou Road, Shunde District, Guangdong, Leliu Town, Foshan, CHN, 528322
Website
http://www.gdxinbao.cn
Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co Ltd is a Chinese company engaged in the manufacturing, developing and selling kitchen electrical appliances, home appliances, electronic components and baby electrical appliances. The product portfolio of the company includes electric kettle, coffee maker, hand mixer, blender, toaster, bread maker, steam station, among others. The company sells the products under its own brand, Donlim. It sells its products in China, and also exports it to other countries.
Executives
Wang Wei Directors, executives
Li Ya Ping Supervisors
Zhu Xiao Mei Directors, executives
Ceng Zhan Hui Directors, executives
Yang Fang Xin Directors, executives
Kang Xing Zhuang Supervisors
Guo Jian Gang Director
Huang De Cai Executives
He De Hong Executives
Wen Chao Dong Director
Tong Yong Hua Executives
Zhang Jun Supervisors
Fang Xun Executives
Lan Ping Qing Executives
Pan Wei Dong Supervisors

Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co (SZSE:002705) Headlines

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