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Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co (SZSE:300407) Predictability Rank


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What is Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co (SZSE:300407) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co Ltd (SZSE:300407) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:301016 SHSE:603500 SHSE:605001 SZSE:300851 SZSE:000421 SZSE:300789 SZSE:300440 SZSE:002296 SZSE:000976 SZSE:002357 UNP TSX:CNR TSX:CP CSX NSC SHSE:601816 HKSE:00066 TSE:9022 HKSE:01766 TSE:9020
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8th matter Hyflux Building Road, Tianjin Huayuan Industrial Park, Tianjin, CHN, 300384
Website
http://www.keyvia.cn
Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co Ltd covers two areas of electrified railway and urban rail transit, including traction power distribution automation system, dispatching and comprehensive monitoring system, industrial automation system, auxiliary control system for rolling stock, monitoring and diagnosis system, software product development, and others. The widely used products mainly include DK3500 electrified railway traction power supply integrated automation system, traction power supply power dispatching and monitoring system, integrated monitoring system, access control system, automatic ticket checking system, mechanical and electrical equipment monitoring system, passenger information system, disaster prevention alarm system, wireless communication system, and others.
Executives
Kong Xiang Zhou Director
Wen Guo Wang Supervisors
Wang Yong Director
Wang Chuan Qi Directors, executives
Wang Wei Directors, executives
Zhang Zhong Jie Directors, executives
Liu Kun Supervisors
Chu Fei Directors, executives
Cai Deng Ming Directors, executives
Zhao Qin Supervisors
Zhao Yi Huan Executives
Wang Rui Jin Securities Affairs Representative
Zhang Gang Executives

Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co (SZSE:300407) Headlines

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