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Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co (SZSE:300408) Predictability Rank


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What is Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co (SZSE:300408) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co Ltd (SZSE:300408) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:300433 SZSE:002938 SHSE:688728 SZSE:002600 SHSE:600183 SZSE:002463 SHSE:688538 SZSE:002916 SZSE:002456 SHSE:688375 APH TPE:2317 TEL SZSE:002475 TSE:6981 TPE:2308 GLW XKRX:006400 SZSE:000725 JBL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Sanhuan Industrial District, Fengtang, Chaozhou, Guangdong, CHN, 515646
Website
http://www.cctc.cc
Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co Ltd is a China-based company engages in the field of electronic components and ceramics. Its products include fiber optic component, ceramic substrates, multilayer ceramic chip capacitor, resistors, ceramic rods, light-emitting diode ceramic package, surface mount device ceramic package, electronic-ceramic parts, mechanical structural ceramic parts, metalized ceramics, electric ceramics, fashion ceramics, ceramic blade, and aluminum nitride ceramic substrates.
Executives
Ge Yun Cheng Supervisors
Qiu Ji Hua Directors, executives
Wu Xiao Chun Securities Affairs Representative
Gu Qun Independent director
Xie Can Sheng Directors, executives
Zhang Wei Fa Executives
Ye Ying Qing Supervisors
Long Yu Kun Executives

Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co (SZSE:300408) Headlines

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