GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Tallgrass Energy Partners LP (NYSE:TEP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Tallgrass Energy Partners LP (Tallgrass Energy Partners LP) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2013. Start your Free Trial

What is Tallgrass Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tallgrass Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tallgrass Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Tallgrass Energy Partners LP's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Tallgrass Energy Partners LP (Tallgrass Energy Partners LP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Tallgrass Energy Partners LP (NYSE:TEP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NS HEP GEL BOG:PROMIGAS TSX:ALA CEQP TCP PAGP HKSE:03633 TSX:GEI XBRU:FLUX DCP AM VNOM SHLX ALTM BPMP TSX:KEY NBLX SZSE:002267
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.tallgrassenergy.com
Tallgrass Energy Partners is a young master limited partnership that focuses opportunistically on growth through acquisition and development of natural gas and crude oil transportation, as well as gathering and processing assets. Tallgrass operates and has participating interests in some of the more strategically important midstream assets in the Bakken and Rockies (for example, the REX and Pony Express lines).
Executives
Frank J Loverro director 320 PARK AVENUE, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
William R. Moler director, officer: See Remarks 4200 WEST 115TH STREET, SUITE 350, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Dehaemers David G Jr director, officer: See Remarks 4200 WEST 115TH STREET, SUITE 350, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Osborne Stanley De J director C/O KELSO AND COMPANY, 320 PARK AVENUE, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John T Raymond director THE ENERGY & MINERALS GROUP, 811 MAIN STREET, SUITE 4200, HOUSTON TX 77002