Turkish Investment Fund (Turkish Investment Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Turkish Investment Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Turkish Investment Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Turkish Investment Fund (Turkish Investment Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Turkish Investment Fund Inc (NYSE:TKF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.morganstanley.com

Turkish Investment Fund Inc operates as a diversified closed end management investment company. Its investment objective is long term capital appreciation by investments in equity securities of Turkish corporations.

Executives

Jorge Chirino	officer: Portfolio Manager	522 5TH AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10036
Patricia A Maleski	director	C/O J P MORGAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC, 522 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Timothy J Knierim	officer: CCO	100 MULBERRY STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Advance Developing Markets Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	11 NEW STREET ST. PETER PORT Y7 GY1 2PF
Jakki L. Haussler	director	221 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Nancy Everett	director	1812 PARK AVE, RICHMOND VA 23220
Joseph C Benedetti	officer: Vice President	C/O INVESCO, 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
John H Gernon	officer: Principle Executive Officer	522 5TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Arthur Jason Lev	officer: President and PEO	522 5TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Sara Furber	officer: President & PEO	MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 522 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Mary Ann Picciotto	officer: CCO of the Advisor	LORD, ABBETT & CO. LLC, 90 HUDSON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Frank J Smith	officer: PFO & Treasurer	C/O MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MAN, 1221 AVENUE OF THE AVENUE 22ND FL, NEW YORK NY 10020
Randy Takian	officer: President and PEO	399 PARK AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kevin Michael Klingert	officer: Vice President	MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 522 FIFTH AVENUE, 20 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
W Allen Reed	director	LEGG MASON, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202

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