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Tennant Co (Tennant Co) Predictability Rank


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What is Tennant Co Predictability Rank?

2 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Tennant Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tennant Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tennant Co (Tennant Co) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
10400 Clean Street, Eden Prairie, MN, USA, 55344
Tennant Co is a manufacturer of floor cleaning equipment, wood flooring, and wood products. It operates in four geographic business units including North America; Latin America; Europe, Middle East, Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company offers products and solutions consisting of mechanized cleaning equipment, detergent-free, and other sustainable cleaning technologies, aftermarket parts and consumables, equipment maintenance and repair service, specialty surface coatings, and business solutions such as financing, rental and leasing programs, and machine-to-machine asset management solutions.
Executives
Kristin A. Stokes officer: Interim General Counsel 701 N. LILAC DRIVE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55422
Donal L Mulligan director ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Steven Alan Sonnenberg director EMERSON PROCESS MANAGEMENT - ROSEMOUNT, 8200 MARKET BOULEVARD, CHANHASSEN MN 55317
David W. Huml officer: Sr. VP, Global Marketing 701 N. LILAC DRIVE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55422
Richard H. Zay officer: Senior VP, The Americas 701 N. LILAC DRIVE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55422
Carol E. Mcknight officer: Senior VP and CAO 701 N. LILAC DRIVE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55422
Azita Arvani director 1522 LOMA DRIVE, HERMOSA BEACH CA 90254
Carol S Eicher director ROHM AND HAAS COMPANY, 100 INDEPENDENCE MALL WEST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19106
Andrew P. Hider director 10400 CLEAN STREET, EDEN PRARIE MN 55344
Chris Killingstad director, officer: President and CEO C/O TENNANT COMPANY, 701 N. LILAC DRIVE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55422
Fay West officer: Senior VP, CFO 1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD, SUITE 600, LISLE IL 60532
Barb Balinski officer: SVP, Innovation & Technology 10400 CLEAN STREET, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Timothy R. Morse director C/O YAHOO! INC., 701 FIRST AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
David S Wichmann director BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Daniel E. Glusick officer: SVP, Operations 10400 CLEAN STREET, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344-2650