Tri Pointe Homes (Tri Pointe Homes) Predictability Rank

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What is Tri Pointe Homes Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tri Pointe Homes Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tri Pointe Homes (Tri Pointe Homes) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » Tri Pointe Homes Inc (NYSE:TPH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

T86:Germany

Address

940 Southwood Boulevard, Suite 200, Incline Village, Irvine, CA, USA, 89451

Website

https://www.tripointehomes.com

Tri Pointe Homes Inc is an American construction company that focuses on residential construction. The company designs and builds single-family homes and condominiums through its portfolio of six regional housing brands. Its largest regional brands include Maracay Homes, which operates in Arizona, and TRI Pointe and Pardee Homes, which operate in California, Nevada, and Colorado. From a geographic perspective, California is TRI Pointe's largest source of revenue, followed by Arizona and Nevada. The company also operates in Texas, Oregon, and Virginia. TRI Pointe completes approximately 4,000 homes annually with an average selling price around $500,000. TRI Pointe also is involved in the sale and development of land.

Executives

Lawrence B Burrows	director	C/O TRI POINTE GROUP, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Glenn J. Keeler	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O TRI POINTE GROUP, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Douglas F. Bauer	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	C/O TRI POINTE GROUP, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Steven J Gilbert	director	540 MADISON AVE, 40TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Moore Constance B	director	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 4980, HOUSTON TX 77002
Thomas J Mitchell	officer: President, COO, and Secretary	C/O TRI POINTE GROUP, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Robert Kent Grahl	director	19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Vicki D. Mcwilliams	director	C/O TRI POINTE GROUP, INC., SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Michael D Grubbs	officer: See Remarks	C/O TRI POINTE GROUP, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
David Ch Lee	officer: VP GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	C/O TRI POINTE GROUP, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Bradley William Blank	officer: See Remarks	C/O TRI POINTE HOMES, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Barry S Sternlicht	director, 10 percent owner	STARWOOD CAPITAL GROUP GLOBAL LP, 1601 WASHINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Ken Krivanec	officer: President of Quadrant Homes	C/O TRI POINTE HOMES, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Daniel S Fulton	director	C/O TRI POINTE GROUP, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Christopher D. Graham	director	C/O TRI POINTE HOMES, INC., 19540 JAMBOREE ROAD, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612