What is TuSimple Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
TuSimple Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
TuSimple Holdings (TuSimple Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
9191 Towne Centre Drive, Suite 600, San Diego, CA, USA, 92122
TuSimple Holdings Inc is an autonomous technology company in the global truck freight market. It has developed a technology for semi-trucks to build the Autonomous Freight Network (AFN) in partnership with shippers, carriers, railroads, freight brokers, fleet asset owners, and truck hardware partners. The company recognizes revenue from providing freight capacity services. TuSimple's two reportable geographic segments are the U.S. and APAC.
Executives
| Eric R Tapia |
officer: See Remarks |
100 GRAINGER PARKWAY, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| J. Tyler Mcgaughey |
director |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Zhen Tao |
director |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Wendy Hayes |
director |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Michael G. Mosier |
director |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Lu James Fu Bin |
director |
C/O PLAYTIKA LTD., HACHOSHLIM ST 8, HERZLIYA PITUARCH L3 4672408 |
| Mehmet Ersin Yumer |
officer: See Remarks |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE STE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| James Mullen |
officer: See Remarks |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE STE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Patrick Dillon |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE STE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Reed Werner |
director |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE STE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Brad W Buss |
director |
198 CHAMPION COURT, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Cheng Lu |
director, officer: See Remarks |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE STE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Michelle M Sterling |
director |
5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| White Marble Llc |
10 percent owner |
9191 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE STE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Charles Guowei Chao |
director, 10 percent owner |
|
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