Tri-Continental (Tri-Continental) Predictability Rank

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What is Tri-Continental Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tri-Continental Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tri-Continental (Tri-Continental) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Tri-Continental Corp (NYSE:TY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TYp.PFD:USA

Address

290 Congress Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02110

Website

https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com

Tri-Continental Corp is a United States-based closed-end management investment company. It invests to produce future growth of both capital and income while providing reasonable current income. The fund is divided into two equal segments namely, the equity segment uses quantitative models to select individual stocks whereas the Flexible capital income segment invests across a company's investable capital structure, including stocks, bonds, and convertible securities. The Fund invests in a range of sectors, which include consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, healthcare, industrials, information technology, industrials, materials, real estate, telecommunication services, utilities, aerospace and defense, banking, chemicals, and others.

Executives

Janet Carrig	director	ONE SOUTH WACKER DRIVE SUITE 3200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Raghavendran Sivaraman	other: Portfolio Manager of Issuer	225 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Douglas A Hacker	director	P O BOX 66100-WHQLD, CHICAGO IL 60666
Oleg Nusinzon	other: Portfolio Manager of Issuer	225 FRANKLIN ST, BOSTON MA 02110
Gene R Tannuzzo	other: Man Dir/GL HD of FI Issuer IA	225 FRANKLIN ST., BOSTON MA 02110
Christopher O. Petersen	officer: Vice President and Secretary	5228 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Grace Lee	other: Portfolio Manager of Issuer	225 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Brian M. Engelking	other: Dir., VP & CFO of Issuer's IA	225 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Sandra Yeager	director	225 FRANKLIN ST., BOSTON MA 02110
Jonathan C Cleasby	other: Dir., VP & CFO of Issuer's IA	225 FRANKLIN ST., BOSTON MA 02110
David L King	other: Portfolio Manager of Issuer	C/O PUTNAM LLC, ONE POST OFFICE SQUARE L5, BOSTON MA 02109
Pamela G Carlton	director	901 S. MARQUETTE AVENUE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Daniel Beckman	officer: Senior Vice President	225 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Brian J Gallagher	director	225 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Anthony M Santomero	director	RENAISSANCE HOUSE, 8-20 EAST BROADWAY, PEMBROKE D0 HM 19