UDR (UDR) Predictability Rank

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What is UDR Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

UDR Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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UDR (UDR) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » UDR Inc (NYSE:UDR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UF0:Germany

Address

1745 Shea Center Drive, Suite 200, Highlands Ranch, CO, USA, 80129

Website

https://www.udr.com

UDR is a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, acquires, renovates, develops, redevelops, disposes of, and manages multifamily apartment communities in targeted markets located in the United States. The company has two reportable segments; Same-Store Communities segment represents those communities acquired, developed, and stabilized prior to January 1, 2021, and held as of December 31, 2022, and Non-Mature Communities/Other segment represents those communities that do not meet the criteria to be included in Same-Store Communities, including, but not limited to, recently acquired, developed and redeveloped communities, and the non-apartment components of mixed-use properties. The company generates key revenue from Same-Store Communities.

Executives

Thomas W Toomey	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Patricia Sciutto Doerr	officer: SVP-Chief ESG/People Officer	1745 SHEA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Kevin C Nickelberry	director	1745 SHEA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Harry G Alcock	officer: SVP-Asset Management	4582 SOUTH ULSTER STREET PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Jerry A Davis	officer: SVP-Chief Operating Officer	1745 SHEA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Clinton D Mcdonnough	director	1745 SHEA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Tracy L Hofmeister	officer: VP-Accounting	1745 SHEA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Joseph D Fisher	officer: SVP-Chief Financial Officer	1745 SHEA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Diane M Morefield	director	200 W. MADISON STREET, SUITE 1700, CHICAGO IL 60606
Michael D Lacy	officer: SVP-Property Operations	1745 SHEA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Matthew A Cozad	officer: SVP-Corp Serv and Innovation	1745 SHEA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
Warren L Troupe	officer: Sr Exec VP & General Counsel	1745 SHEA CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, HIGHLANDS RANCH CO 80129
James D Klingbeil	director
Lynne B Sagalyn	director
Jon A Grove	director