Urban-gro (Urban-gro) Predictability Rank

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What is Urban-gro Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Urban-gro Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Urban-gro (Urban-gro) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Urban-gro Inc (NAS:UGRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8P6:Germany

Address

1751 Panorama Point, Unit G, Lafayette, CO, USA, 80026

Website

https://www.urban-gro.com

Urban-gro Inc is a integrated professional services and construction design-build firm . we offer fully integrated architectural, engineering and cultivation systems integration company for commercial cannabis and food-focused Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) facilities. With experience in hundreds of CEA facilities spanning millions of square feet across the globe, the firm engineer, design, and integrate complex environmental equipment systems into high-performance facilities. Once operational, urban-gro's gro-care Managed Services Platform leverages the company's expertise to reduce downtime, provide continuity, and drive facility optimization.

Executives

Lewis Wilks	director	555 SEVENTEENTH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, DENVER CO 80202
Bradley John Nattrass	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5115 FOXGLOVE TRAIL, BROOMFIELD CO 80023
Jason T Archer	officer: Chief Operating Officer	883 CARBONATE LANE, ERIE CO 80516
Jim Dennedy	director, officer: President and COO	5269 W. 62ND AVENUE, ARVADA CO 80003
Sonia Lo	director	1751 PANORAMA POINT, UNIT G, LAFAYETTE CO 80026
Anita D Britt	director	3000 NW 107TH AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33172
David Hsu	director	1751 PANORAMA POINT, SUITE G, LAFAYETTE CO 80026
James Robert Lowe	director	5132 QUITMAN STREET, DENVER CO 80212
Richard Alan Akright	officer: Interim CFO	6549 S. BLACKHAWK WAY, AURORA CO 80016
Lance Galey	director	3940 CHIPPEWA DR, BOULDER CO 80303
James H. Dennedy	director	61 ROYAL BIRKDALE, SPRINGBORO OH 45066
George R Pullar	director	1750 PANORAMA POINT, UNIT 6, LAYFETTE CO 80026
Gutierrez Arias De La Parra Octavio	director, officer: Secretary	2537 PROSPECT COURT, BROOMFIELD CO 80023