UpHealth (UpHealth) Predictability Rank

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What is UpHealth Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

UpHealth Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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UpHealth (UpHealth) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » UpHealth Inc (OTCPK:UPHL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

14000 S. Military Trail, Suite 203, Delray Beach, FL, USA, 33484

Website

https://www.uphealthinc.com

UpHealth Inc is a digital health company intent on creating a single, integrated platform of technologies and services essential to personalized, affordable, and effective care globally. The company's segment includes Integrated Care Management; Virtual Care Infrastructure; Services and Corporate. It generates maximum revenue from the Services segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the Americas.

Executives

Avi S Katz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Pres, Exec Chairman	C/O GIGCAPITAL, INC., 3000 EL CAMINO REAL, BLDG 4, SUITE 232, PALO ALTO CA 94306
Jay Walter Jennings	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EHEALTH, INC., 440 EAST MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Mark Guinan	director	C/O QUEST DIAGNOSTICS, 500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Luis Machuca	director	ITXC CORP, 14600 NW GREENBRIER PARKWAY, BEAVERTON OR 97006
Chirinjeev Kathuria	director, 10 percent owner	C/O UPHEALTH HOLDINGS, INC., 14000 S. MILITARY TRAIL #203, DELRAY BEACH FL 33484
Mariya Pylypiv	director, 10 percent owner	14000 MILITARY TRAIL, #203, DELRAY BEACH FL 33484
Samuel Meckey	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	320 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Samantha Josephine Bray	10 percent owner	2083 WALKER LANE, HOLLADAY UT 84117
Anais Alexandra Bray	10 percent owner	2083, HOLLADAY UT 84117
Jeffery Rex Bray	10 percent owner	2083 WALKER LANE, HOLLADAY UT 84117
Kimberlite Social Infra Private Ltd	10 percent owner	IDEAL VILLA VILLA NO 98, KOCH PAKUR, SOUTH 24 PARGANAS K7 700156
Eligere Ltd Liability Co	10 percent owner	9 HAWSER WAY, RANDOLPH NJ 07869
Syed Sabahat Azim	10 percent owner	14000 MILITARY TRAIL, #203, DELRAY BEACH FL 33484
Alexandra Bray	10 percent owner	2083 WALKER LANE, HOLLADAY UT 84117
Anais Bray Protective Irrevocable Trust	10 percent owner	3056 MILLCREEK DELL LANE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84109